A headline this week in a Pakistani paper read, “Something is about to happen.” Alas, nothing did.
There was immense speculation of the imminence of Pervez Musharraf’s resignation and departure from Pakistan.
Asif Zardari called the retired general a relic of the past. The Muslim League (Nawaz) and the lawyers’ movement called for putting Musharraf on trial. Some said there was a rift between Musharraf and Ashfaq Kayani. They alleged that Musharraf considered sacking the army chief and Kayani had reprimanded him in a three hour meeting and recommended his resignation from the presidency. The chatter, if not accurate, could have been part of a PML-N disinfo strategy to create a wedge between the presidency and the army. Afterall, Khawaja Asif of the PML-N said that the presidency, perhaps via the PPP, had some time ago offered to give up various powers in exchange for maintaining control over the appointment of military service chiefs.
Also, there were changes in Musharraf’s security detail and talk of his moving to the president’s house. Senate Chairman Muhammad Mian Soomro, first in the line of succession for the presidency, is returning to Pakistan early from a trip abroad. Mirza Aslam Beg, former army chief of staff, said that a plane was waiting at Chaklala air base to move out the Musharraf family. He said Musharraf is under the army’s “protective custody.”
But a gloomy week ended on a good note for Musharraf. The army has affirmed Musharraf as its “supreme commander in chief” and described his meeting with Kayani as routine. On Thursday, Musharraf wined and dined with Pakistan’s prime minister, service chiefs, governors, and others representing the apparent coaltion between the PPP and Pakistan’s so-called establishment.
There, he’s said to have had an impromptu meeting Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani. During the dinner, he gave an address and, in English, denied reports of a rift between him and Kayani. Last night, U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley spoke with his right hand man, Tariq Aziz. And today, Musharraf received a call from George Bush, who is said to have reaffirmed his support for Musharraf’s presidency.
And so it seems as if talk of Musharraf’s depature has been greatly exaggerated. But it would also be foolish to discount the present anti-Musharraf drive in Pakistan and the potentially violent crisis on the horizon.
As I have written several times, June promises to be a volatile month in Pakistan. It begins with the lawyers’ long march and ends with by-elections.
Aitzaz Ahsan, seemingly undemurred after his talk with Hadley, has promised to take his march to the Army House, where Musharraf presently lives, if he does not resign by then. Such a development would pit civil society against the PPP & Army, with a strong potential for violence.
Meanwhile, verbal attacks on Musharraf increase. The shackles on Abdul Qadeer Khan have been loosened. He’s now talking to the media. Khan said his confession to nuclear proliferation and other misdeeds was incorrect and made under Musharraf’s pressure. Chaudhry Amir Hussain, the previous National Assembly speaker and member of Musharraf’s party (he was second in line of presidential succession), said today that Musharraf should be punished for whatever wrong he did. In this speech, made at a religious gathering, Chaudhry Amir also said that Pakistan was formed on the basis of Islam and Western democracy won’t function there. Also, he added that the previous government operated on America’s command and that should not continue. His address is in part pandering to the religious right but also signal of a strategic break with Musharraf.
Talk of Musharraf’s departure will remain somewhat alive. Tariq Aziz has gone off to Dubai with his son. Let’s see if he comes back. Eleven days remain till the long march. Should Musharraf remain in office, the long march could become a long war.
As of the stroke of midnight Saturday-Sunday (May 31-June 1, 2008) Pakistan officially advanced its clocks by one hour. This “daylight savings” move is a bid to conserve energy in an increasingly energy strapped economy in conditions where everyone agrees that the energy situation is going to get worse well before it gets any better.
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